Where Will the 20th AFL Expansion Be?
By
Will Brown
Contributor Updated: 10 September 2024
Will Brown Contributor
William Brown is a Content Writer with strong expertise in US and global gambling industry trends. Having covered the local sports betting market since the repeal of PASPA in 2018, William approaches his gambling guides with passion and diligence. He is a keen player of online slots, blackjack, and a regular sports bettor.
AFL Expansion
With the 19th AFL expansion team set to launch in Tasmania in 2028, pundits are already looking to which city will host the next Aussie rules team. While nothing has been confirmed, we believe that there are three major contenders that each offer distinct perks. However, there are many challenges that each prospective location faces that relate to population, economy, and even the weather. In this guide, we’ve comprehensively discussed which city is most likely to host the next team.
Intro to the AFL 20th Team Dilemma
To get this guide started, we’ve provided a brief history of the AFL, from its interstate expansion after the VFL era to the current plans to launch the 19th team in Victoria. From there, we’ve looked at the challenges that face an AFL 20th team.
We’ve then provided the arguments for the three best locations for a new team: Darwin, Canberra, and Newcastle, with pros, cons, and challenges explored. There will be plenty of interesting information for those who enjoy Australian Rules Football betting and are looking to expand their knowledge about the sport.
- Lead-Up to a New Team
- The Challenges Facing a New Team
- A Case for Darwin
- A Case for Newcastle
- A Case for Canberra
The Lead-Up to a 20th AFL Team
Between 1897 and 1995, the primary major professional Australian rules football league was called the Victorian Football League (VFL). This was because the sport was invented in Victoria, with most teams hailing from Melbourne or the nearby city of Geelong. In 1982, a Melbourne team relocated interstate to Sydney, seeing the creation of the Sydney Swans.
Over the next two decades, additional teams popped up in the city of Adelaide in South Australia, Perth in Western Australia, and Brisbane in Queensland. To reflect the sport’s national appeal, the league was renamed the Australian Football League (AFL) in 1995. Now, eight of the league’s 18 teams are out-of-state.
The 2010s saw the AFL expansion continue with the creation of the Gold Coast Suns in Queensland and the Greater Western Sydney Giants in New South Wales. In 2023, Tasmania’s application to launch a new state team was approved, with the Tasmania Devils set to debut in 2028.
These developments have proved a growing appetite for more national teams, so we expect that the 20th AFL team will hail from outside the sport’s home state of Victoria. At the top of our list is a team in the Northern Territory, which technically remains the only state or territory in the country without a team.
While some believed that Western Australia could be set to take a new license, the WA Football Commission recently ruled itself out of hosting a third team. And with one of the 19-team lineup set to have a bye each week when the Devils join in 2028, a 20th AFL team will likely be introduced as soon as possible.
The Challenges Facing a New Expansion
While an AFL expansion to 20 teams would be a huge milestone for the league, there are several challenges facing a new franchise. Firstly, with a population of only 25 million people, most of Australia’s residents are located in major capital cities along the East Coast. This means alternative cities may struggle to garner large membership numbers.
Therefore, the new teams will require significant investment from both the AFL and the state and federal governments to develop stadiums, talent, and infrastructure. There are also concerns regarding the weather conditions of some remote locations that can see scorching heat or freezing temperatures at night.
The Prospective Teams
While there is plenty of discussion about which cities are ideal to host AFL expansion teams, we believe that there are three viable options that are both logical and sought after. These include a team in Darwin in the Northern Territory, Canberra in the Australian Capital Territory, and Newcastle in New South Wales.
A Case for Darwin
Darwin is the capital city of the Northern Territory and is known for its tropical climate and enduring indigenous Australian culture. With a population of roughly 150,000, it is one of the least-populated capital cities in Australia. This hasn’t stopped calls for the city to host its own AFL team, though.
In May 2024, the Nothern Territory put forward an official business case that floated the idea of hosting a new AFL expansion team in Darwin. A new stadium has been suggested for construction in Darwin’s central business district at a cost of roughly $700 million AUD, which could see a team debut in the early 2030s.
The plan also earmarks $80 million for upgrades to the Traeger Park field in Alice Springs, a central Northern Territory city. This could help to develop new talent in the state. While the move could bring huge economic and cultural benefits to the state, it would need significant funding from the AFL and government bodies.
Recent surveys among AFL supporters have found that a majority of respondents believe that the Northern Territory would be the ideal host for a new team. Due to the large Indigenous population in the state, a local team would help to nurture talent among this community.
The state has developed some of the largest stars in the game, including Andrew McLeod and Nathan Buckley, both of who have joined a feasability task-force to investigate the proposition. The task force, which released the business case, notes that the territory has the largest per capita participation rate in AFL in the nation.
However, with only 250,000 people throughout the whole state, it may not be large enough to sustain a major professional league team. Other highlighted disadvantages are that the climate could be difficult to manage, with an especially humid summer making the game too intense for visitors.
A Case for Newcastle
Newcastle is a coastal city located in New South Wales that is located roughly 100 miles north of Sydney. With a population of more than 320,000 people, Newcastle could be a great location for the AFL 20th team. However, the city has yet to make a formal bid, making its prospects murky.
There are several advantages to hosting a team in Newcastle. With a strong industrial economy and wealthy mining businesses, the city could financially support a budding team. Its accessibility to Sydney is also set to be improved in the coming decade, with a high-speed rail under serious consideration.
Currently, the city hosts a minor league AFL team that plays in the Hunter Central Coast division, which indicates a sizable enough following to justify a new team. The idea was supported by former Essendon and GWS Giants coach Kevin Sheedy thinking that Newcastle would be the perfect place for a local expansion.
However, a new team would run up against some sizable challenges, notably that the region is known for being home to primarily National Rugby League (NRL) supporters. This would require a huge campaign to generate local interest and boost membership. A new stadium would also need to be constructed.
A Case for Canberra
Many readers may not be aware that the capital of Australia isn’t Sydney or Melbourne but Canberra, a small city located within the Australian Capital Territory. The city is known for its cosmopolitan culture and cultural hubs such as the National Art Galleries and Museums. It is also the center of Australian politics.
With its population of 395,000 people, Canberra seems like a likely candidate for an AFL team. Representation of the nation’s capital city would be logical in the Australian Football League, and the local government’s influence could likely convince the AFL managing bodies to grant it representation.
It could be argued that an AFL expansion into Canberra isn’t necessary, with the GWS Giants technically dividing its homes between Canberra’s 16,000-seat Manuka Oval and Sydney Showground Stadium. However, it seems right that the city should have its own team entirely named after itself as a matter of civic pride.
The biggest hurdle facing the city’s expansion prospects is that it has committed to not kicking GWS out if a new team is created, and the team has already developed a strong fan base in the region. We believe that GWS is better off moving to the city completely, with another Sydney team launched to represent that large market.
