Betting Trends Shift: March Madness 2025 Outlook

by Amelia Walker, March 31, 2025

When we speak of sports betting, March Madness is one of the most anticipated events. Even though the historical NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament draws millions of spectators, this year’s forecast shows a change in betting patterns, H2 Gambling Capital reports. The gaming research company completed an in-depth analysis, the results of which you can find below.

A Small Decline Expected in Betting Handle

The first round of the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball kicked off on March 18th. This year, H2 Gambling Capital predicts a slight decrease in overall betting activity. Players are expected to spend 169 million in bets, with a handle for the event reaching $2.9 billion. That’s a 1.5% decline from the previous year.

One reason for the decline is that there haven’t been any recent state online sports betting launches since last year. In 2024, the digital betting market in North Carolina kicked off shortly before March Madness. Another explanation for last year’s success was the “Caitlin Clark Effect.” With her exceptional performance, the basketball player drew increased attention to the women’s NCAA tournament, leading to higher-than-usual betting activity.

Why March Madness Hold Rates are Lower than Other Sports

Compared to other professional sports, March Madness usually has lower hold rates, which is the percentage of wagers retained by operators as profit. This could be partially explained by the lower share of same-game parlays because individual NCAA players are less well-known. As a consequence, player props aren’t that common.

For instance, Vermont reported a mere 1.14% hold rate for March Madness in contrast to an 11.03% overall sports betting hold rate last year. H2 Gambling Capital estimates this year’s tournament will achieve a hold rate of 7.8%, slightly up from 7.5% the previous year. Despite the declining handle, the gross gambling revenue is expected to reach $223 million.

Fan Favorites During March Madness 2025

The Duke Blue Devils are this year’s tournament favorites at +300 odds in the men’s division. Cooper Flagg, the star player and number one overall recruit for the Duke Blue Devils, was available for the team’s first-round game following an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, in the women’s tournament, the South Carolina Gamecocks are favored at +240 odds and are slightly ahead of the UConn Huskies.

Of course, the Super Bowl remains the most profitable among all US sports, but basketball accounts for over a third of the total handle. NCAA college basketball itself represents 16% of this figure. H2 Gambling Capital forecasts a 25% year-on-year growth for 2025, reaching approximately $18 billion. This growth is expected to be driven by new market entries, such as Nebraska and Missouri.